NF had a 3IB down move then bounce to high and closed at dPOC in last session post budget event. Observation was that half of supply still in system and unless POC is held and makes attempt to clear above 24510 to get PDH and higher odds were there to get 24400/24350-24330 bounce then later 24285/24240 expected.It stayed below POC via open test drive down to probe 24350 then bounces could not sustain above POC of last day then finally probed 24285..tight range at low could not get extn down which got clean squeeze into close and whipped two ways then closed at dPOC.
Primary bias was to look for balance and skew down atleast in first session today as long as no squeeze higher happens early in session..Then may be post mid session, could find bottom and go for two way balance or reversal higher.NF followed this auction today.
Inside day auction filling yday rally zone and dent left in the profile.
Selling tail and poor low.
As discussed in commentary, apart from last session remaining supply, we got added supply today. For the entire bounce from low in last hour, nothing got eased off and infact they added more.So, unless we see squeeze staying above value area, odds again to rotate down and test VAL and PDL then decide after swipe there.
NF got excess low in last session which makes 24200-24250 as solid swing support zone for July.
Levels for next session, move above 24490 could get 24525/24550 and staying above that could get 24595/24635/24675-24685/24725/24760. Not able to stay below 24265 and moving above 24345 could get 24380/24420/24455/24485. Failing to stay above 24530 and moving below 24450 could get 24420/24380 weak below that for 24350-24335/24280-24270 if sustains 24265 then 24240/24205 bounce else 24165/24125/24090 odds.
Charts and data :
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