Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -20May'22

NF had a large gap down and trend down day on Thursday.. Since buyers of 17/05 and 18/05 were under water, observation was that sellers should hold below 16870 to get further move down..Acceptance above that expected test back to tail zone of Thu then check gap zone and considered reversal above 16100.

And also the low printed was quite weak low for swing low at 15740 (4days of low in that zone)..So, unless they are going to make it as solid poor low to get one way rally considered that this low could open up bigger and 16100 was kept as negation for this view..

NF yet again surprised with good gap up from close with open above 15870 staight and cleared 16100 quick with a large open drive squeezing shorts big way via short covering profile.It negated trend down day and large gap of Thursday

Following are some of good information to take from last session

a) As mentioned in commentary, more than the volume the intent via open drive was kind of never seen before in recent times hence good chance some good structural change from NF now holding this tail..Potential tail this one which could get a large rally via one time frame up from here..Such sollid poor low from swing means auction could unfold only two ways from here a) one time frame up on daily profiles for few sessions b) negate this short covering day once again as how the whips are happening now and clear that poor low 15740 quicker.. As per data and auction from last session, lesser chance for overlap or clearing that poor low quicker and odds higher for one time frame up sessions here.. Tail zone 16050 negation for this view now..If this goes then buyers could face some strong liquidation for many sessions straight.

b) Day started as trend day and then negated trend day in first session to test intra tail zone then remained as short covering profile by close with small spike close at high.. and during that process left some clear mechannical defense around 16165 then closed higher.And,auction was incomplete at close with spike..This denotes intention of inventory that they prefer to move this market up quick and not completed their job yet..Such mechanical support and push leads to short term emotional run..So, for next session focus is to get acceptance above this short covering profile which makes things bullish..Always a acceptance above P / short covering profile = bullish case..No acceptance above such short covering profile means its just one day auction to clear weak hands hence travel down could be easy and quick.

c) We had a clean up trend day on 17/05 which negated with clean trend day down on 19/05 which again got negated now in last session with large buying tail then close at high profile..Such kind of quick shuffle if inventory even inside large balance and wild volatile auction uaully leads to one way move and not more balance..Right now with latest info of last session large tail focus is to look for buyers to take this up one way..

d) We are in balance zone and upper end of balance is 16380-16420 zone..so, holding this 16050 tail ref buyers should move higher quick to get this zone next to prove all above observation right.

Swing short view negated above 16100 and mentioned aove 16100 probe was for 16250/16350 to make two weeks composite wider..This has done first obj now 16250 and negation at 16050 for swing to get next obj 16350/16450.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

After having 5 weeks of one time frame down, current week registered inside week with solid poor low around 15740.. Buyers if commited next should start the week with defense of 16050 and acceptance above 16200 POC zone of current two weeks composite to test upper end of current composite 16380-16420 zone..If creates value above it then could look for 16600-16650 next if sustains then 16850/17000 probe possible.. Failure to sustain above 16380-16420 could give pullback to 16230-16200 zone and that should hold..Weakness below 16200 for 16050-16020 and quite weak below this for 15900-15850/15740/15600 and that goes means straight to 15400/15200/14900/14600-14500.

Monthly :

Monthly in May now double distribution trend day profile and rotating in lower disbn as of now..Closed at dPOC now and sustaining here could go for testing above 16400 the gap extn of this double disbn profile..If rejected there then rotate down back to dPOC 16200 again the to dVAL zone 15850.. If susatins above 16400 then probe is to close entire gap zone till 16650 then rotate back to 16450-400.. Extreme case upside is acceptance above 16650 which could travel quick in upper disbn till 16850/17000.And, right now dVAL zone 15850 is good support for the month and that goes means then back to month low 15740 and could extend to 15675/15600 for close..Extreme case downside below 15600 for 15400/15200/14900.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly :

Data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.

b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.