Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -28Feb'22

NF had a short covering profile on 25th with acceptance in 24th large tail zone. Supply was not seen. After such clean profile that too after strong imbalance down day, best way for buyers was to get follow through by gap or drive. NF failed to get that instead opened in tail zone of P profile which lead to liquidation of buyers with a move below PDL..That open drive below PDL failed to hold and gone for all day one time frame up higher to close with spike above PDH.

Pointers from last session :

NF gone for outside day i.e, failed to stay below PDL and then gone above PDH..

It was clean triple distribution emotional run auction. Emotional run because strong trending move started after failing open drive (clean trend day starts from point A to end at point B not like from point A to point B way down then from B to way higher to close), then upper distribution was way wider than lower disbn and stopped one time frame up clearly but still managed to close higher with spike. This kind of run happens usually when one set of players pushes auction to complete quick hence emotional and stretched inventory auction it was. In other words, this is very short term committed move and not for sustained rally.

Buyers had to put in lot of effort to get such outside day and emotional run auction..Now, they need double the effort to stay higher without entering back into upper disbn of the day else another liquidation and overlap auction possible with previous session. If they manage to hold upper disbn with volume and value then more follow through upside possible.

Rule of outside day is, hold range to stay higher else go for overlap..Now, with this outside day, we got such poor structure triple distribution auction too.Swing wise rally higher holds higher risk without retesting 16580/16450 zone.

Weak high at PDH on 25th now got cleared.

Spike up close hence spike rules in focus for next session. 16759-16825 spike zone. Stay in spike/above spike = bullish ; Stay below spike zone = weakness.

Swing view mentioned in last report that 25th move was mechanical hence some balance is probable outcome..That move higher got failed and repaired mechanically held tail of 25th in last session.16600/16450 retest expected and its done in last session.Now, again above said outside day + triple disbn overlap profile confirms the same view that we could be having large balance/skew down than any sustained rally.

Upside zones to look for exhaustion/rejection after yday auction are 16850 around balance low zone, 16930 naked POC zone, extreme case 17030-17100 zone large composite balance value area low zone.. Swing wise looking for rotation down back to 16580/16450/16250 failing to stay above said zones.

Odds for above swing view to happen higher due to daily structure in making now..Structure is now back to back imbalance days on 24th and 25th then outside day triple distribution profile on 28th now..As I said earlier, back to back strong imbalance (5% down day then back to that PDH next day) itself clear sign to look for balance and now this 28th auction adding more conviction to this balance expectation view..So, upside any rally chances are less or even if happens lesser chance to hold.

Kindly refer tradeable hypos for next session below.

Charts and data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

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