Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -22Apr'22

NF had a double distribution trend day with dPOC skew higher at close on Thursday. Observation was that though technically edge with buyers but context wise risk was with long side due to mechanical low at PDH + skewed upper distribution of DD inside large balance + Large extension singles in previous gap LVN zone.. So, if buyers failed to get follow through expected such DD profile to give up quick. NF straight away opened around PDL zone of DD trend day then pushed higher.But could not give exit to the stuck buyers of upper disbn from previous session despite extended balance above IBH which resulted in neutral day liquidation towards close clearing morning low and closed at dVAL.

Pointers from last session :

It was neutral extreme down day i.e, IB extn higher first then IBL cleared next and closed at lower quad..Edge with sellers/against buyers at close.

Negated DD trend day from 21/04.

Buyers from 21st trend day are stuck now with this day after unabling to sustain higher and move to upper disbn of prev session but gone for liquidation to close at day low.

As mentioned in closing commenary, auction is incomplete at lows at 17155 and holding below 17220-17250 band more follow through on downside possible.

NF left poor value area and anomalies in profile due to quick sell off in second session.Once follow through down done, we could look for repair of this profile.

That view of " no rally higher but only large balance" for swing is playing out..If buyers of Thursday was committed then expected them to get higher further, failing to do so expectation was to mean revert to 17250/17050-17000 zone and this is on now.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF had a liquidation auction in a shortened last week with b profile.Expectation was likely to get imbalance week next. Observation was that long inventory created above 17650 were stuck so staying below 17500 expected liquidation move again in current week to get 17265 and that zone was considered as tough zone to clear on first attempt due to a wide POC on weekly strucuture..Acceptance below there expected probe to 17050/16850. NF had a large gap down liquidation right at start of week and gone well below 17265. Later the bounce got rejected around 17310 and got all downside probe zones till 16850. Upside ref kept at 17480-17520 as tough to clear..Bounce from 16850 zone not able to test this zone and now closed the week below dPOC.

Weekly registered 2nd week one time frame down and closed below dPOC = weakness..Similar to last week, now got another set of long inventory trapped above 17300 extn this week from 21/04 and they are under water with close at 17150 now. Scenarios for the week could be,

Staying below 17250-17300 band, probe is towards 17050/16950-16920 zone then should save large tail there and to get bounce. If sutsains 16920 then last week low swipe to get 16840-16800 zone and this is very major support next. Any bounce from 16920 zone or from 16840-800 zone could test 17150/17250 zone and could rotate down again..

Bounce expecting due to shape of current week profile which need a fill back. If accepts 17250 with value then clean move towards 17380/17480-17520.If accepts then 17680-17720 test possible as extreme case.

Extreme case on downside is rotation below 16800 which has no major support till 16400 and move could be quicker may be with some pause around 16650 zone..Below 16400 easy swipe to 16200/16050.

Monthly :

Observation after last week close was with negation at 17750, Apr expected to get 17350-17300 next then might pause to decide bottom for month and back to mean else strong liquidation was expected for 17050/16850. This is done now for Apr with 16850 probe..Monthly now clearly making double distribution down profile. Now, this tail zone at low from last week important for Apr.

Reverse hook clearly working on larger time frame with bounces not giving exit to buyers from first 8days of auction. 17300 pivot now for the month. Staying below 17300 could retest tail zone based on daily and weekly structure and should hold 16800-16850 to rotate higher back to pivot 17300 to keep this lower disbn on monthly profile to get a fill. Tough to scale 17300, if it does then could go for 17480 and as extreme case to 17650-17700. Daily value below 16800 could get spike close down for the month towards 16650/16400/16200/16050.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly :

Data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

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