Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -18Nov'21

NF had a 2nd day of one time frame down on Thursday after buyers failed second day not able to sustain the upper quad auction and closed at lows on neutral day. Post such neutral day auction, sellers expected to get quick follow through down holding below 17930-17940 zone.

NF opened lower below PDL zone then bounce got rejected at 17944 to get quick open test drive down. Failing to stay above 17940 and back below 17900 expected to get 17860/17835-17820 then considered quite weak below 17790 for 17765-17750/17720-17680. NF gone down straight to 17735 via drive down then post balance met 17692 then bounced to close at dPOC.

Pointers from auction :

It was 3rd day of one time frame down.

Another clean long liquidation b shaped profile with large tail at top. Unless accepting this tail at top could look for another overlap session and below this b profile could look for another liquidation profile.

NF has almost reached lower end of large balance zone in making. Balance rules apply now. Now scenarios possible here are a) Look below and sustain below the large balance b) Hold balance low and revert to mean of this large balance to test supply c) Look below balance > Fail > then bounce back in the balance.

My bias considering volume on daily and the structure ( daily profiles inside balance reaching lower end of balance mostly with long liquidation profiles) is either b or C scenario..

As I explained in commentary, we usually get some good noise and high volume environment before breaking and sustaining such large balance which is missing as of now.So, we could either look below and fail with lack of supply or reponsive buyers stepping in to push back price in this balance upside or hold balance low zone and move back higher..Whatever it is, we could expect the answer mostly in next session.

NF left a buying tail at low. This tail is support for next session..Buyers should hold this tail zone then look for accepting in large selling tail at top. Giving up this tail is weakness.

17700-17730 support zone for next session. Holding this and scaling above 17790 could get 17825/17855/17885 if sustains 17895 then bullish further for 17920/17945-17960/17990. Quite bullish above 17995 for 18015/18040-18050/18075 .

Failing to sustain above 17820 could drop to 17770 if sustains then 17730-17710 and weak below 17700 for 17670-17650/17620/17580-17560 and below 17550 could move to 17525/17490.

Failing to sustain below 17700 or above 17825 could lead to two way overlap profile into previous day value.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

It was 3rd week of overlap with close at last week and closed at higher end of week with good bullish structure on daily profile.So, with daily and weekly close, expectation was to get quick follow through higher early at week sustaining 18070 above to test 18220-18260 zone. If this zone doesnt open up higher then expected to drop back to 18070..Below 18070 expected a move to 17950 and that expected to hold else 17820/17750 probe was expected.

NF right at start of week got higher follow through only to get rejected at 18220 mark then fell down since then straight to 17750 and below zone via daily one time frame down profiles.

It was outside week looking above weekly high then below weekly low and closed below VAL zone.Weak close. Sellers if committed then should hold 17870-17900 zone and should push this down below 17700 to get 17620-17580/17490-17450 if sustains then 17300/17200 probe next possible.

Accepting above 17900 could push this higher towards 17970 which could pause for pullback down but if sustains then 18070-18090 zone clean probe possible..And this is major res zone for pullback down again. If sustains then NF could move towards 18170-18200 and not expecting anything beyond this as of now upside. If we get volume and clear this band then objective is 18350 test.

My bias is buyers to show up early in the week to push this higher in a session or two quick then do balance again. If buyers not showing up in first or second day of week then deep cut down possible breaking below this balance and sustain lower.

Monthly :

With inside bell profile on monthly, expected auction was to hold 17650-17750 zone and continue the balance. We have now reached this band and expecting this to hold to continue the balance in coming week too as mean reversion move back to 18090-18170 zone to decide next. Below 17650, sellers could take full control for monthly closing at lower end pressing entire week downside.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

Data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.

b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.