NF had a spike down close with clear control from sellers in last session. Spike rules in focus at open. NF opened higher above spike high but could not sustain and gone back to spike zone to push down for IB swipe. Failing to stay above 16920 and back below 16880 probe was for 16850-16830 which happened during IB time..Later,NF had a bounce higher above IBH and gone for quite a imbalance auction via triple disbn profile to close at high. Above 17030 probe was for 17210 then 17320 and NF did this move fully and closed higher.
Pointers from today's auction :
NF closed the large gap at 17280 from 11/02..Supply eased..Back to mean reversion/balance now.
It was triple distribution + > 3IB day auction..Quite emotional and imbalanced move..Struture is quite weak due to following reasons and risk is on long side now..
a) Imbalance started from day dVAL zone as well as from old swing low zone..not a good way to start a rally..Imbalance from balance mid zone/high zone holds good for rally not the move from lows which gets exhausted sooner mostly.
b) Old imbalance zone of large gap zone 17280-17125 filled back by another imbalance today via large extension singles..Such structure not good to expect a sustained rally further as we need some balance to be created there.
c) Price moved way away from dPOC hence need a balance before further rally..
So, with all such structure some repair back to today's profile required before looking for strong rally hence looking for mean reversion in coming sessions..Repair required for two zones 17250 then 17150-17100 band..
Buyers to negate today's weak structure and move further higher,should defend extn singles of the day and should go for higher value day and once gets higher value should not revert back to today's range..If they are able to hold extension singles then upside is open till 17450-17480/17550 as mentioned in commentary.
Swing shorts got negated at 17030 today..Swing view on hold now for a session or two as looking for mean reversion move..
Trade hypos for next session below.
Charts and data :
Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.
Notes :
a) Check glossary page in website if any of the terms used in the post are not clear.
b) If images are not clear, click on them for enlarged view.
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