Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -13May'22

NF printed 8th day of one time frame down with large selling tail on Thursday. Observation was that buying tail should push back above dPOc to build value in tail zone if fails to sustain then repair in poor value area. NF got a rally above dPOc and built value in tail zone but could not sustain and gone for acceptance in poor value area later in the day and closed with spike down.

Pointers from Friday's auction :

NF stopped 8days of one time frame with PDH swipe + some higher volume registered.

It printed Neutral extreme down day with spike down day.

Both are conflicting info and volume is well above 10days average at 160L.So, if sellers in spike not committed to get quick follow through down, then such volume and neutral day auction could lead to few days of balance auction.

Spike rules apply for next session. Spile zone = 15826-15744. Stay in spike/below spike = weakness ; Stay above spike high = strength.

It was 45 degree move away from dPOC zone to leave poor value area due to neutral day auction..Focus in next session is to bring value lower else above spike could go for repairing poor value area and move back to POC zone.

Swing wise as mentioned in commentary, this is not clean secured low now this 15730-740 zone..So, odds increasing in May month to clear March month low.Next session could answer if this could happen straight or after a balance for few sessions.Due to sustained MO reading around -120 now, preferred scenario is time correction atleast with balance to cool down this MO reading (Overall market breadth).

Same view as mentioned in last report, with those back to back large selling tails from 12th and 11th, rally chances are less which proved in Friday auction to arrest the rally and pushed down via neutral auction..So, any rally again could lead to balance only than one way up move higher.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF had 4th week of one time frame down with dPOC skew down at close. So,as long as no acceptance clearly above 16650, was looking for pressure with buyers to go for one more leg of liquidation to clear poor low at 16350 and get 16250-16200 extreme case 16050/15900 levels then expected a sharp bounce higher.NF stayed below 16650 and gone for 5th week of one time frame down clearing well below 15900 till 15730 then got the bounce..

Now current week dPOC stands at 16325 and there is a good chance for short term bottoming in place given the volume and auction taking place last two sessions..So, probable outcome for current week is to look for balance / overlap in last week range to bring down value from 16325. So, roughly keeping range as 15600-16150 for the week..

To start the week, immediate resistance is 15850 if sustains then 15975/16150 probe possible to look for rotation down..If accepts 16150 then 16270/16350 possible if sustains then 16420-16450 possible which could again rotate down as its strong res again.If sustains 16450 then clean move towards 16650 and extreme case 16850 possible.

15700 now good support to start the week and accepts means could stretch till 15600 then could bounce higher..Below 15600 clean move to 15450/15200/14900 possible.

Monthly :

Monthly is clearly in trend down as of now and as long as staying below 16150 it could stay as same.. Above 16150 could move to 16350/16450 to stop trending move and then could have balance or could see strong reversal above 16450 acceptance which could push towards 16650/16850. Not able to sustain above and clearing 15600 could end as trending month with probe next towards 15200/14900/14700.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly :

Data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

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