Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -13Apr'22

NF had shown weakness at close on 12th with FA at 17655 FA gone + lower value + neutral day at close. Observation was that any move higher after such close could be sold off again as long as staying below 17700. NF had a open drive up at open on 13th and just kissed 17700 then drive up got failed which pushed for liquidation move towards PDL zone..Then, all day had overlap value to print b profile and closed at dVAL.

Pointers from 13th Auction :

It was clean liquidation profile with dPOC down skew..

It left a probable tail but weak low around PDL..As mentioned in closing commentary based on skew with sellers with this dPOC skew and dVAL close, sellers could get gap down/ drive down next.

After that FA clearance on 12th, those buyers in range of 17650-17950 zone couldnt get exit still so any clearance of this 17500 could next invite liquidation move again.

Swing wise not accepting above 17750 suggested no long view and expectation was to get 17425-17380/17265. Still same view and negation now moves to 17665 for this view.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF last week has ended as balanced week with close around dPOC of the week and expectation was to get a fill in last week range.To start the week, 17750-17800 considered good support band to get 17970-18020 band but if 17750 goes means 17650/17580-17550 probe expected and anything below 17550 expected to get 17425/17350 quick. NF started the week with inside day clearing 17750 then moved till 17480 and remained below 17750 for close in a truncated week..That quick move to 17350 below 17550 it couldnt get.

Now after a balanced profile last week, no fill and got liquidation week currently..Due to short week, NF registered lower range after Nov’21 on weekly.Likely to get imbalance week next..And with long liquidation formation and longs are stuck above 17650, below 17500 likely to get liquidation move again in current week. So, staying below 17680-17720 and clearing 17500 could get 17380/17320/17265 and 17265 quite a tough zone to clear on first attempt as that has quite a wide POC on weekly strucuture..Might swipe around but could expect decent bounce from 17320-17265 zone towards 17480-17520 zone tough to clear this weekly b profile base on first attempt and could send down back again.

If accepts then 17680-17720 test possible.17680-17720 stiff resistance upside if sustains then 17840-17870/17970/18050 probe possible.On extreme case could stretch towards 18240.

Any value below 17265 on daily session, opens up 17050-16980/16850 probe for the week as extreme case on downside.

Monthly :

Confirmed last week that support on monthly could be moved to 17550 to look for balance in range for current month.Buyers failed to hold this balance in range and started accepting lower last week below 17550. Below 17550 on monthly observation was for reversal down towards 17350-300 to start with then 16850/16400. NF now started this process for Apr and weekly started Balance then liquidation structure.So, with negation 17750 Apr, could get 17350-17300 next then might pause to decide bottom for month and back to mean or more downside later.Bounce should reach 17700 quick for that mean reversion view else more liquidation possible after bounce failing in between 17350-17700 zone.

So, for the current week focus is to look for bounce around 17300-350 zone and then hold that zone after a bounce till month close and clear upside bands one by one 17480-17520 / 17680-17720 etc else could look for strong liquidation down next towards 17050/16850.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly :

Data & Hypos :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, actionable trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members in private blog.Above report is only part of it.

Notes :

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