Daily market summary of NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -09Jul'21

NF had a clear trend down day with 4IB move with higher volume in previous session. Observation was that supply could keep pressure down staying below 15790. NF opened below PDL and gone for open drive down to clear last week low and then negated open drive with large IB extn higher.

Failing to sustain below 15690 and back above 15710 expected to get 15735-15750. This IB extn probed till 15755 and then gone for all day lower value balanced profile and closed at dPOC.

Pointers from the day :

NF after a clean trend down day got lower value day now.This lower value day could not sustain below last week low after morning failed open drive and had dPOC skew upside into close. As discussed in commentary, signs of prev trend day supply done its job and eased off hence not much of attempt to push below dVAL of the day. Accepting above 15735 POC of trend day could confirm this further.

It was nice balanced profile after a imbalance day. With dPOC skew higher,need to get quick follow through upside via gap/drive else entire value area could be probed back.

As mentioned under importance nuance yesterday, 15735 POC is good resistance which could be only tagged but could not accept..Accepting above this first sign for reversal and then 15790 next ref to confirm that entire 08th trend day profile selling can be reversed.

Previous FA 15659 got repaired and no follow through now. Next acceptance in 15650-15600 band calls for large correction as mentioned in last report. This become good swing support now if we get upside follow through in next session.

Swing wise now can consider Long above 15820 with 15650 negation to get 15950/16020/16100. Swing sell activates below 15590 for 15450/15300/15150 with negation at 15750.

For next session, above 15745 could test 15775-15790/15820/15845-15865. Above 15875 could move to 15905-15920/15950.

Failing to sustain above 15800 and break below 15750 could test 15720-15700/15675/15650-15635.

Quite weak below 15620 for 15580/15550-15530.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF had 5th week of overlap value last week. Considering daily structure, expected 15700 to hold to get 15855/15910 then above 15950 expected further move up. NF gone for this move in first two days of week to test excess zone 15910-15930..It failed to move above 15950 and left poor / weak high at prev ATH 15930 and moved down. Expected a move back to 15800 if fails to sustain above 15950 and that 15800 was considered as support. 15800 held for a day and then gave up for next probe zones marked 15720/15650 for the week and closed at dVAL.

NF cleared below last week low and closed at dVAL now..Its 6th week of overlap and almost a outside week.. Staying above 15750 VAL zone early in the week probe is back to 15845/15910 zone to fill back value area of last week as well as the large balance in making if sustains 15930 then could move to 16020/16100/16200.

As I mentioned last week as well as in commentary, around 5 weeks overlap is average and beyond this if overlap continues means sign of large exhaustion. Longer the overlap higher the odds for solid reversal down. So, focus this week should be if NF planning for extension higher from this else should get ready for some serious correction.15650-15600 now tested enough times and shown clear buyers defense..Break of this band could lead to 15450/15300/15150.

Monthly :

Month if failed to clear 15900 and breaks 15600 expected imbalance down for 5%.. July sofar stuck in this range only..As long as 15600 holds bias is for sideways to upside month for a obj towards 16020-16100/16200 as of now.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

Data :

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members via private blog.

Notes :

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