Daily market summary for NF and charts, data of NF & BNF -16Apr'21

NF had two way auction day and closed with dpoc skew at day high edge with buyers in previous session.Buyers were expected to defend 14550-14580 zone if wants to look for move higher. NF had a open auction defending 14580 and moved higher. Above 14640 probe was for 14710 which happened close to IB period. Failing to sustain above 14680 was expected to drop to 14640/14600 which sellers failed to do in tight balance and got squeezed in last hour.Once squeeze done came down to mornig tail zone and closed below dVAL.

Pointers from the day :

It was short covering auction day.

NF seen lack of demand. Below average range,volume and closing below dVAL leads to this observation.

Secured high at top which pushed price back to morning tail zone and closed below dVAL..Its upto buyers now to push above 14680 to gain strength else liquidation possible in next session.

3-1-3 balanced profile.. Tail at both end and nice balance inbetween. Sustain tail = trend ; Fail to sustain tail and accept value area = probe entire value area.

Price wise, 14680 ref for next session. Acceptance could test 14710/14740 if sustains then 14790-14810/14870/14925/14960 probe possible.

Failing to sustain above 14680 could drop to 14620 and weak below 14620 for 14565-14550 and quite weak below 14550 for 14490/14450 if sustains then 14400/14365/14300 probe possible.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF printed outside week last week..Immediate reaction for outside week was to look for another overlap auction in this outside week range..If sustains range extreme of outside week then expected trend that side..14800 was again considered as pivot. NF opened with gap down below 14800 and had drive at start of week. Probe down was for 14500/14300 and below and NF got 14280 at first day of week itself. Then bounced back to have balance in 12th profile.

Current week has printed clear lower value week after a outside week. Staying below 14680-14710 band current week skew is for downside towards 14520/14370 POC/VAL of last week. If sustains below 14350 then 14220/14150/13950 probe possible. Though price has moved higher most of the week after 12th, since value is now built lower looking for mean reversion into current week VAL zone and then look for extn down. Last day’s auction at upper extreme of lower value week with lower volume and range adds conviction to this view

If accepts above 14710 then more short squeeze which could go for closing gap at 14810 then POC of last week 14890-14910 and then 15040 probe possible.

Monthly :

Expected one quick surge up in Apr profile till 15100 considering the overlap into Feb-Mar value but Apr resolved downside last week and now overlap lower value in making on monthly profile. With volume on lower side, unlikely to rally higher above 14800 and path of least resistance is downside towards dVAL of monthly at 14370. If sustains there with daily higher volume profile then could move down towards 14150/13950/13600 by end of month. Bullish above14800 for 14960/15040.

To conclude, 14680-14710 band to focus for start of week..If scales then 14810/14900/15040 possible. Failing to scale this band could drop to 14520/14370 if sustains then 14220-14150 then some pullback then could move to 13950.

Charts :

Daily

Weekly

Monthly

Data

Detailed plan with references to carry forward, trade hypos for next session, any importance nuance from the day and view based on weekly and monthly time frame are available to members.

Notes :

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