Daily market summary,charts and data for NF -01Oct’20

Green tickz
Oct 4, 2020
3 min read

NF on Wednesday closed with poor high and weak low with close below dPOC and we had 2days of good balanced auction..NF opened with clean gap up post such balance..Clean gap means > 0.25% of ATR atleast..After such gap up in prev supply zone of large extn singles, NF started accepting them via open auction.Acceptance in prev imbalance means reversal into imbalance zone..NF gone for this via slow trend day and closed at day high..Above 11320 probe was marked for 11390/11450-11475 and NF almost tagged 11450.

It was slow trend day up closing at high without any secured high..Its buyers job to defend VWAP or worst case extn singles of this trend day to look for secured high.Below

VWAP 11400 first sign of weakness and below extn singles 11370 solid weakness.

NF had a clean gap up..When we have clean gap up and gap is not closed in first session and value is built higher then probability is higher for close on the gap side. NF followed the same auction on Thursday.

NF have started accepting prev strong imbalance zone 11480-11320 with value.This suggests no sign of old supply hence we could look for more upside or balance going forward till we see sign of strong supply.

Price wise for next session, holding around 11400, NF could look for probing naked POC higher at 11480 if sustains then 11525-11535 probe possible..Break of 11400 could test 11370-11365 and quite weak below 11365 for probe below PDL at 11340 then 11310-11290 to close gap. As mentioned in prev report, below 11290 we have solid 2days clean balance hence could be quick move down towards 11210/11180.

Larger picture :

Weekly :

NF has printed multi distribution down week and I have said that V shape reversal from such profile is rarity.. Was looking for balance and fill in that multi disbn profile and max upside was expecting only till 11165-11185 zone. But, NF took a V shape reversal and cleared 11185 zone with ease.Above 11185 probe was for 11320/11450-11500 zone and NF did this entire move in a short week.

NF this week have extended from 11300 zone when it was making P profile i.e, short covering from 10800 zone and ended as double distribution week due to extn on Thursday..So, this 11300-11270 is support and as long as staying above could look for balance to upside skew till 11480-11520 zone and above 11520 could move to 11620-11650/11750 zone.

Below 11270 straight probe towards 11150-11180 zone and expecting that to hold to send price back higher for balance..If fails to hold 11150 then could drop till 11020/10950 zone in that multi disbn weekly profile..

Looking for two way auction this week considering the profile structures we have and may not have one way move either side..Context for this observation is based on,

a) we had back to back weekly imbalance first downside then rally back so could call for some balance

b) current week rally is with some weak low refs on daily profiles and extension from thick P into double distribution..As we have seen many times, move after DD profile is mostly balance and not much of further rally on same direction.

So,odds are higher we could go for some balance before any big rally due to above factors.

Monthly :

Was expecting not to scale back in P in making in Sep profile but NF did scale on that profile and closed at dVAL on Sep.It was monthly profile stopping 1TF on monthly time frame and closed at dVAL. Its a weak close on monthly time frame..

But, first day of Oct itself it has started accepting well in Sep value which negates weakness established by close in Sep profile. We could look for more balance in Sep value now as long as staying below

11600 roughly..And, monthly could turn bullish sustaining above 11600 after balance towards 11750/11900.

Weakness below 11200 for a test of 11000/10900 zone.

Charts :

Daily